Analysis: The Recent Correction in Tech Stocks Cannot Be Simply Attributed to High Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields

Odaily News, according to a research report by CITIC Securities, the recent correction in tech stocks cannot be simply attributed to high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Behind the correction lies the issue of forward pricing for AI-related stocks, with three key narrative variables:

1) Whether the pace and scope of commercialization can keep up with market expectations;

2) Whether computing power advantages translate into market share and pricing power advantages;

3) Whether the current gap in computing power will significantly widen the long-term gap in AI models.

The current consensus concern is the pace and scope of commercialization, while the biggest potential variable is whether "distillation prevention" will re-widen the model gap in the future. As for macro factors, the impact of the U.S. Treasury's announcement to buy back long-term bonds is very limited. However, in the short term, both a weaker U.S. dollar and weaker rate hike expectations are conducive to the convergence of the global market's K-shaped divergence. Nevertheless, the factors driving the sustained rise in long-term U.S. interest rates have not fundamentally changed, and persistent disruptions may continue to emerge in the coming period. Under the influence of these external disturbances, the capital structure of the A-share market in the short term determines that the complexity of market gaming is still increasing. During such a volatile market phase, one should manage psychological expectations and avoid excessive grand narratives.