Strive CEO: Bitcoin May Be Entering a Historic Bullish Environment, with the Dollar Index in Structural Decline

Odaily News: Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, stated on platform X that over the past decade-plus, he has maintained the view that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is in a structural downtrend, and it may currently be approaching a more significant downward phase that could have major implications for Bitcoin. If this assessment holds, the next 5 to 7 years could become one of the most favorable macroeconomic environments in Bitcoin's history. He pointed out that the long-term downward trend of the dollar index, which has been forming since the late 1960s, is reflected not only in the technical pattern of "lower highs and lower lows" but is also supported by U.S. fiscal fundamentals.

Matt Cole noted that every major bull market in Bitcoin has been accompanied by dollar weakness. During the 2017 rally, DXY fell from around 103 to 88; in the 2020-2021 cycle, the dollar index dropped from about 103 to near 89; and during Bitcoin's all-time high in 2025, the dollar also weakened from around 108. The previous rounds of dollar declines have been relatively limited in scale, but the current situation may be approaching a multi-year dollar downtrend similar to the mid-1980s and the period from the early 2000s to the global financial crisis. His baseline assessment is that the dollar index could continue to decline over the next 3 to 7 years, potentially even testing the low of around 70 seen in 2008.

Matt Cole believes that if the dollar experiences a true long-term structural breakdown, Bitcoin will encounter a macroeconomic environment it has never faced before. He stated that most current Bitcoin predictions in the market are still based on past performance, but Bitcoin has yet to experience sustained momentum from a "long-term dollar recession cycle." He also mentioned that the U.S. Treasury recently announced it will at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury bond buybacks, while long-term Treasury yields are under pressure and the dollar is weakening in tandem—factors that further reinforce his long-term assessment.

Matt Cole concluded: "Over the next 5 to 7 years, people may still not be bullish enough on Bitcoin." He believes that if the 45-year-long dollar trend ultimately breaks to the downside, Bitcoin could enjoy macroeconomic tailwinds far exceeding those of any historical cycle.