9月底发布GPT-6概率约72%，OpenAI曾因网络安全风险放缓Astra推出
2026-08-18 19:21
Odaily News: Prediction market data shows that the probability of AI company OpenAI releasing its next model, Astra (internally named GPT-6), before September 15 is 59%, and the probability of release before September 30 is approximately 72%. OpenAI has not yet announced an official release date.
On August 7, OpenAI stated that internal testing showed Astra has made significant progress in autonomous coding and cybersecurity, but it cannot rule out the model possessing "critical cyberattack capabilities," prompting the company to slow down its release schedule.
According to OpenAI's safety framework definition, a model reaching this level can identify and build usable zero-day exploit programs against multiple hardened systems without human assistance.
Polymarket data shows that the September 15 contract has a probability of 59% with a trading volume of approximately $27,600; the September 30 contract has a probability of approximately 72% with a trading volume of approximately $35,600. Myriad market traders view September 30 as the most likely deadline for GPT-6, with a probability of 31%. OpenAI stated that Astra was not involved in the incident involving the exploitation of Hugging Face. (Decrypt)
On August 7, OpenAI stated that internal testing showed Astra has made significant progress in autonomous coding and cybersecurity, but it cannot rule out the model possessing "critical cyberattack capabilities," prompting the company to slow down its release schedule.
According to OpenAI's safety framework definition, a model reaching this level can identify and build usable zero-day exploit programs against multiple hardened systems without human assistance.
Polymarket data shows that the September 15 contract has a probability of 59% with a trading volume of approximately $27,600; the September 30 contract has a probability of approximately 72% with a trading volume of approximately $35,600. Myriad market traders view September 30 as the most likely deadline for GPT-6, with a probability of 31%. OpenAI stated that Astra was not involved in the incident involving the exploitation of Hugging Face. (Decrypt)
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