摩根士丹利将泡泡玛特目标价下调13%，称公司面临高基数等压力

Odaily News, Morgan Stanley has lowered its price target for Pop Mart (09992.HK) from HK$247 to HK$214, citing high base pressure in the second half of the year and a sharp slowdown in overseas sales. In the report, analysts stated that due to a lack of incremental information and high-frequency data showing a significant slowdown in overseas sales, investors have anchored on the most bearish data points ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a broadly bearish sentiment.

Retail investors' excessively high expectations remain a major downside risk, given their significant proportion in the shareholder structure. The firm forecasts first-half sales growth of 29% and net profit growth of 18% to RMB 5.4 billion. Management is expected to guide second-half sales to exceed the first half while remaining cautious on year-over-year outlook. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating, as it estimates a 13% compound annual growth rate in earnings for 2026-2028, driven primarily by the re-acceleration of overseas market sales, and expects total sales to resume growth by 2027.