Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability the Fed holds rates steady in September
2026-08-17 21:27
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut.
Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option.
The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
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