Wall Street's "Fear Index" Hits Year-to-Date Low, Raising Risks of an Autumn Selloff in U.S. Stocks

Odaily News: Despite the S&P 500's strong gains this year and continued capital inflows, historic seasonal selling periods, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and emerging consumer weakness are prompting Wall Street strategists to issue密集 risk warnings.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell sharply to 14.2 last Friday, marking its lowest level since 2026. The index, which measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days by tracking S&P 500 option prices, typically signals that market sentiment has settled into absolute calm when it declines. Jonathan Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technical Analyst at BTIG, noted that the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026 could be described as "unusual." Since last October, the market has not experienced an extreme single-day selloff where declining stocks accounted for as much as 80% of total volume.

Quantitative trading giant Susquehanna described the current volatility reset as a "substantial" decline. The firm pointed out that cross-asset and geopolitical risks remain active, with two-month implied volatility slightly rebounding to 13.5%, approaching levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Wall Street institutions generally view mid-August to mid-October as a historically turbulent period for the market. According to BTIG's statistical model, in every midterm election year since 1990, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has experienced at least a 7% drawdown from its average high on August 18 through mid-October.