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Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before September 30" drops to 11%, down 12% in a month

2026-08-17 12:15

The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before September 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 11%, down 12% in a single month.

Trump said today that he is "in no hurry" to resolve the Iran issue, while confirming the existence of secret communication channels with Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials. Trump also warned that if Oman obstructs the United States, the US will bomb Oman.

In response to Trump's recent claim that "after defeating Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will soon be declared US territory," Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief Hatami stated that even if it was just a joke, such reckless rhetoric is a huge mistake. Hatami also firmly stated, "This is Iran, and the guardians will break the legs of aggressors."

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