Analysis: Bitcoin Releases Late-Bear Market Signals, Liquidity Return May Trigger Next Round of Volatility

Odaily News Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, with volatility, trading activity, and market liquidity all compressed to levels similar to those seen at the end of a bear market.

Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above the "Median Realised Price" of around $63,200, while the key level for short-term holders (STH) to achieve overall profitability stands at $67,176. Meanwhile, market demand is weakening: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $385 million last week, corporate Bitcoin reserve-related activity has turned negative, spot trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and Bitcoin transfer speed has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.

Bitfinex stated that in the current extremely thin liquidity environment, even slight changes in capital flows could trigger significant Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the same time, weak retail activity, declining real income, and deteriorating consumer confidence indicate that U.S. household demand is under pressure. Bitfinex noted that the current market shows a clear divergence: accommodative financial conditions are driving traditional risk assets higher, but the crypto market has not yet received corresponding capital inflows.

Bitfinex believes that the core market question has shifted from "whether monetary policy will improve" to "whether improved liquidity can translate into capital inflows for crypto assets." If Bitcoin spot ETFs resume sustained net inflows in the future, coupled with stablecoin supply expansion, this would signal a restart of the crypto market's liquidity transmission mechanism and could become a key catalyst for BTC breaking out of its prolonged low-volatility state.

Before capital returns, although the macro environment is gradually improving, the crypto market's upside still lacks capital support. However, given that market participation has dropped to extremely low levels and BTC continues to hold key realized price support levels, once liquidity re-enters the market, it could trigger violent fluctuations. The current structure leans toward an upward breakout once demand recovers.