Market sentiment has cooled on OpenAI's Astra model expectations, with the probability of scoring above 1490 on its Arena.ai debut falling 31% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket event "What score will OpenAI's Astra model achieve on its Arena.ai debut?", the probability of scoring at least 1490 currently stands at 32%, down 31% in 24 hours. The probability of scoring at least 140 is currently 32%, down 17% in 24 hours.

If the OpenAI Astra model officially appears on the Arena.AI overall leaderboard, and its Score at 12:00 PM ET on the day after its debut meets the market-specified threshold, the outcome will resolve to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

AutoEval scores do not count; if multiple Astra models appear on the leaderboard on the same day, the highest score will be used. If no qualifying Astra model appears on the leaderboard before the end of 2026, the outcome resolves to No.

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