Plan B: Scarcity, Not Short-Term Price Fluctuation, Is the Core of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin analyst Plan B stated on the X platform that the core of Bitcoin's long-term value lies in scarcity, not short-term price fluctuations.

Plan B believes that many people focus on Bitcoin's price charts, while the S2F model he uses focuses on the degree of asset scarcity. This model measures scarcity through "existing supply ÷ annual new production," where the S2F for gold is approximately 60. Due to Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million coins and its predictable issuance schedule, its S2F is currently around 120 and continues to rise over time.

The Bitcoin halving mechanism is an important driver of the S2F model. Approximately every four years, the Bitcoin network reduces the block reward by half, decreasing new supply and roughly doubling the S2F level, making it the core supply-side event observed by the model.

Plan B emphasized that the S2F and its upgraded version, the S2FX model, predict long-term average value rather than precisely forecasting market tops or bottoms. Bitcoin's price typically fluctuates around the model's estimated value, and investors should focus on multi-year cycle averages rather than single-day price highs. Additionally, Plan B believes that as scarcity increases, Bitcoin is undergoing different stages of development, including proof of concept, payment network, "digital gold"/store of value asset, and institutional-grade financial asset. Each increase in scarcity could bring new market narratives and capital inflows.

However, Plan B also reiterated that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." He stated that the S2F model is merely a tool for long-term understanding of Bitcoin's scarcity, not a trading signal or a "crystal ball" for price prediction. Although the model has withstood major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and China's mining ban, it still has limitations.