CryptoQuant Founder Admits Error: Misinterpreted CME Positions, Leveraged Funds Still Hold Net Short BTC Futures Positions

Odaily News CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on X platform, issuing a correction to his previous analysis of CME bitcoin futures positioning. He stated that he had mistakenly labeled "Total Reportables" as "Leveraged Funds," which led to the conclusion that CME hedge funds had rarely turned net long on BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short BTC futures positions.

Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures positioning data as of August 4:

1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, a category that includes asset managers, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long magnitude is limited, his earlier judgment that institutions leaned bullish still holds.

2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short BTC futures positions, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short size has decreased by approximately 50% (in BTC terms). The main reason is the decline in basis trade returns—when futures basis yields fall below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrows. Leveraged funds are currently net long on Micro BTC futures, but the position size is small, only approximately +394 BTC, equivalent to about 1% of the standard BTC futures net short size.

Ki Young Ju stated that leveraged funds have not yet turned net long overall, but their long-term structural short positions are clearly weakening, which may reflect arbitrage position unwinding and directional position adjustments.