Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebound Relies on Macro Improvement, Institutional Demand Returns but Upside Remains Limited
Odaily News - Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) buying pressure is returning, but the current rebound remains primarily dependent on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts within the crypto market itself. While institutional demand continues to strengthen, weakening U.S. employment data has lowered the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September, yet corporate treasury selling and persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to cap Bitcoin's upside potential.
The report shows that driven by eased geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and a cooling U.S. job market, risk assets have rebounded broadly, with Bitcoin's price approaching the upper range of $62,000 to $65,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, attracting approximately $865.3 million in cumulative inflows, corresponding to the absorption of roughly 13,300 BTC, while the network's newly issued supply during the same period was only about 3,150 BTC.
However, Bitfinex noted that Strategy's sale of 1,638 BTC last week, along with on-chain data showing that approximately 1.79 million BTC have cost bases concentrated in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, still forms significant overhead supply pressure—a key reason for Bitcoin's relatively subdued price reaction. Meanwhile, continued inflows into Ethereum ETFs signal that institutional capital is returning to the crypto market, albeit with more concentrated and cautious investment preferences.
On the macro front, U.S. July non-farm payroll data showed slowing employment growth, and downward revisions to previous months' figures indicate a cooling labor market. Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, this is primarily due to a declining labor force participation rate rather than clear improvement in the job market. Bitfinex believes that low layoff levels and declining initial jobless claims suggest the U.S. labor market remains in a "cooling, not recessionary" phase, but slowing wage growth, falling participation rates, and a narrower hiring scope all reflect weakening momentum in the job market.
Markets have now lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in September to 43.9%, pushing short-term Treasury yields and the dollar lower while supporting gains in equities and crypto assets. However, long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year yield holding above 5.2%, reflecting persistent investor concerns over inflationary pressures and government debt expansion.
Bitfinex points out that if the Fed holds rates steady in September, it would more likely represent a wait-and-see policy stance rather than the start of a rate-cutting cycle. The current macro environment continues to provide support for Bitcoin, but a sustained breakout above the range would require ETF inflows to consistently outpace market selling pressure, alongside further easing of inflation data to push long-term yields lower. Until both conditions emerge, Bitcoin will likely continue to trade within its current range.
