Polymarket odds of "US-Iran reaching a Hormuz Strait agreement before August 15" drop to 11%, down 37% from last week

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket of a "US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz before August 15" has fallen to 11%, down 37% from last week. The probability of an agreement being reached before August 31 has dropped to 26%, down 23% from last week.

Currently, negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have hit another stalemate. According to US officials, an arrangement involving Iran, Oman, and the US regarding traffic management in the Strait of Hormuz had previously been completed, but the agreement has been shelved for several days without announcement. As a result, market expectations for a near-term agreement and the resumption of navigation have further declined.

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