CLARITY Act's probability of passing within the year drops to 21%, Senate to hold first vote on September 15
2026-08-09 23:35
Odaily Planet Daily News Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 stands at 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%.
On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15.
The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15.
The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
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