Prediction markets bet on Fed holding rates steady in September, Polymarket probability at 63%
2026-08-09 17:43
Odaily News: Prediction markets show that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is favored. Polymarket's related market trading volume exceeds $20.3 million, with a 63% probability of holding rates steady; Kalshi's corresponding probability is 65%, with trading volume approaching $4.9 million.
CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16 is 55.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.4%. As of July 31, CME FedWatch had shown a 67% probability of a rate hike.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed that non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed kept rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16 is 55.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.4%. As of July 31, CME FedWatch had shown a 67% probability of a rate hike.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed that non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed kept rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
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