Polymarket probability of "Fed 25 bps rate hike in September" falls to 37%, down 12% in 24 hours

Data from PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that after the release of the non-farm payroll report, the probability of a "25 basis point Fed rate hike in September" on Polymarket fell to 37%, down 12% in 24 hours; the probability of holding rates steady in September rose to 63%, up 14% in 24 hours.

Yesterday's U.S. July non-farm payroll report came in below expectations, with job growth unexpectedly declining by 23,000, far below the market's expected increase of 80,000, cooling market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. Attention now turns to next week's CPI data. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Chief Economic Strategist noted that if next week's inflation data surprises to the upside, even a cooling labor market may not quell internal calls for rate hikes.

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