Polymarket Adjusts Short-Term Crypto Market Settlement Rules, Switching to Time-Weighted Average Price
2026-08-07 15:12
Odaily News: Polymarket will replace single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices in short-term cryptocurrency markets for settling related contracts. This follows research and trader complaints indicating widespread manipulation in its settlement process.
A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders.
The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders.
The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
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