Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September rise to 48%, up 24% in a month

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, ahead of the nonfarm payroll release, Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September have risen to 48%, up 5% in 24 hours and up 24% in a month; odds of holding rates steady in September have fallen to 49%, down 21% in a month.

The U.S. July nonfarm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time. Wall Street institutions forecast a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, reflecting a huge divergence. Market participants believe that if the final data deviates significantly from expectations, stock, bond, and dollar markets could all experience sharp volatility.

The unemployment rate remains the core variable the Fed is watching. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave noted that if the data shows the labor market is "all safe," the Fed could raise rates up to three more times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently pricing in only one rate hike this year.

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