分析师：比特币波动率跌至历史支撑底部，需警惕潜藏剧烈波动风险

Odaily News: Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to 36%, reaching a long-term support level at the bottom, while the price remains in a narrow range around $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warns that a low-volatility environment lowers trading costs, prompting traders to build large directional bets and hedging positions. Once the price breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging could amplify market swings, driving volatility into a mean-reverting rebound.

From a market sentiment perspective, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, notes that demand for put options has cooled significantly, but call options are also lacking buyers. Glassnode describes this state as "no capital is paying for upside, and no capital is paying for downside," suggesting that this phenomenon often signals the market is approaching a cyclical bottom. The divergence between Dogecoin and Bitcoin also reflects persistently subdued speculative sentiment. Howard believes that positive regulatory progress, such as the Clarity Act, which could drive institutional ETF inflows, may become the catalyst for the next major market move. Meanwhile, the failure of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and inflation exceeding expectations are the main downside risks. (CoinDesk)