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Polymarket probability of "U.S. announces end to Iran blockade before August 31" rises to 80%, up 18% in 24 hours

2026-08-05 11:32

Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "U.S. announces end to blockade on Iran before August 31" has risen to 80%, up 18% in 24 hours; the probability of ending the blockade on Iran before August 15 has risen to 68%, up 17% in 24 hours.

The event rules state: If, before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the U.S. government or its authorized representatives publicly and formally announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian vessels and their customers, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Qualifying announcements must be statements made by the U.S. government regarding the current termination or suspension of the blockade, a previously unannounced termination or suspension, or a final decision to terminate or suspend the blockade, and must clearly and explicitly indicate that the blockade has ended or been halted.

U.S. President Donald Trump previously stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are "going very well." Trump told reporters, "We'll know the result. We'll know within 48 hours." He noted that the two sides are engaged in active discussions and emphasized that the ultimate key lies in whether an agreement can be reached.

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