中金：AI回调高度类似2000年四轮回撤，本轮企稳需三大压力缓解

Odaily Planet Daily News According to CICC Research, since mid-to-late June, the global AI chain has experienced a notable pullback, with South Korea—characterized by "high leverage, high crowding, and high retail participation"—seeing the most severe decline. Behind this are amplifying effects from high crowding and leverage, macro disturbances (such as rising expectations of Fed rate hikes and the re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushing up oil prices), as well as renewed concerns about an AI bubble at this stage (e.g., Meta renting out computing power, declining token spending).

In fact, before the bubble ultimately burst in March 2000, the tech and internet rally experienced at least four major, prolonged corrections. The triggers for those declines are highly similar to the current pullback: short-term setbacks in industry trends, macro "headwinds," and overheated valuation sentiment. Ultimately, tech stocks were able to rebound only after pressures in these three areas eased. Therefore, applied to the present, market stabilization—or even a new round of upside—also requires the alignment of these three factors: absorption of high crowding and leverage (largely achieved), easing or clarity on Fed rate hike expectations (watch the July FOMC meeting), and, more importantly, fresh catalysts from earnings and industry developments (July-August earnings season). (Jin10)