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Polymarket probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" rises to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours

2026-08-02 08:06

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" on Polymarket has risen to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours; the probability of talks occurring before August 15 has risen to 27%, up 13% in 24 hours.

Trump posted on social media today stating that he received a request from Iran to delay the attack and agreed to cancel the strike on Iran in exchange for an agreement. He noted that the U.S. is prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, strength, and capability unseen since World War II, as a framework for an agreement has already been reached. This framework includes the immediate, complete, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ending Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, he agreed to cancel the attack for the future interests of the world and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, provided that an agreement can be reached promptly.

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