Mizuho: Clarity Act Could Intensify Long-Term Competition in Stablecoins, Negative Impact on Circle

Mizuho analysts stated that if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," is passed, while it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reason is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating stablecoin commodification and eroding the revenue potential of Circle's USDC.

Mizuho believes that the primary pressure Circle faces in the near term comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is backed by a coalition of over 140 financial, technology, and crypto companies, with members including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains approximately 38% of USDC reserve yields, Open USD employs a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve yields to distribution partners while retaining only a small management fee.

Analysts also noted that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD. This could give Coinbase stronger bargaining power when renegotiating its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties could be up for renegotiation as early as next month.