灰度研究主管：若美联储不再加息，比特币价格可能已经触底

Odaily Odaily Odaily research director Zach Pandl said that the market currently has two main views on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one is to follow the "four-year cycle", and the other is to regard Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors. The "four-year cycle" view holds that the halving event is still the core driver of the Bitcoin price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin usually bottoms about a year after a cycle peak and about 2.5 years after a halving, with an average cumulative retracement of about 80%. According to this pattern, Bitcoin could still fall further in this cycle and form a bottom in September or October. The other view is that Bitcoin prices will be more influenced by economic growth, real interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy changes, just like other major assets. Past Bitcoin bear markets have usually been accompanied by slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates. This decline also occurred against the backdrop of rising interest rate expectations and rising real interest rates. Pandl said he agrees more with the macro-driven view. If the Fed stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin prices may have already bottomed.