Multiple Key Events for Semiconductor Stocks in the Next Two Weeks, AI Capital Expenditure in Focus

Odaily reports that Paradis Labs stated on platform X that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose on the day, with SIVE, AEHR, and IQE gaining over 20%, and SNDK, MU, and AAOI rising over 10%.

Paradis Labs noted that regardless of today's returns, gaining more clarity over the coming weeks will be more important: On July 22, GOOGL will release its Q2 earnings, which will serve as the first formal indicator of annual capital expenditure for approximately $750 billion in hyperscale cloud providers; On July 22-23, AMD will hold the Advancing AI event, where wafer foundry loading, advanced packaging, and laser-type demand roadmaps through 2027 can be observed; On July 23, INTC will report Q2 earnings, with 18A yield and foundry commitments potentially being major variables, while also providing insights into U.S. domestic manufacturing and packaging momentum; On July 23, IBM will report Q2 earnings, and with its market cap already down ~25%, the market's reaction to any guidance shortfall is worth watching; On July 24, 10% global tariffs expire, and new tariffs are expected to be imposed on dozens of countries, which could act as a stagflationary factor and influence the Fed's rate hike narrative; On July 27, Kimi K3's complete weights will be released; On July 28-29, the FOMC meeting will convene, with experts and Polymarket expecting rates to remain unchanged. It is noteworthy that a rate hike or a signal of a rate hike would represent the first true institutional shift for the AI trade; On July 29-30, META, MSFT, and AMZN will report earnings, providing more capital expenditure data; On July 30, the U.S. will release June core PCE.

Paradis Labs also indicated that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be reached at any time. A 10-day proposal is currently on the table, while attacks continue. A formally confirmed ceasefire would be beneficial for oil prices and bullish for semiconductor stocks. The above is a high-level timeline of the key upcoming events, all of which will impact semiconductor stocks to varying degrees. When hyperscale cloud providers report earnings, AI capital expenditure will be the most important factor.