Bitcoin option implied volatility drops to low levels; analysts suggest it may signal significant price swings

Odaily reports that Murphy stated Bitcoin option implied volatility is currently extremely low, with a 1-week IV of 33% and a 1-month IV of 34%, both below the historical range of 40%, potentially signaling significant price swings. According to Murphy’s statistics, similar situations have occurred twice in the past year: in early January, after IV fell below 40%, BTC dropped from $97,000 to $62,000 within 15 days; in late April, after IV fell below 40%, BTC dropped from $82,000 to $60,000 within 14 days; and after June 15, BTC dropped from $66,000 to $58,000. Murphy pointed out that low IV is related to market consensus, the accumulation of volatility arbitrage funds, and the short gamma mechanism of market makers, which may amplify the impact of unexpected events, and reminded contract traders to be prepared.