Probability drops to historic low, expectations for formal enactment of the CLARITY Act in 2026 turn bearish

Odaily Planet Daily News Sentiment regarding bets on the formal enactment of the CLARITY Act in 2026 has turned bearish, with the probability of the bill being passed within the year falling to a historic low. The market's peak expectation for the bill at the beginning of the year once reached 82%, but as negotiations have hit multiple deadlocks, the probability has continued to decline. The core disagreements hindering the bill's progress include a standoff over ethics clauses, opposition from banking lobbying groups regarding provisions related to stablecoin interest payments, as well as a tight congressional schedule and the approaching midterm elections, which have compressed the window for deliberation and voting. Although major industry players generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory bill, traders believe that the multiple disagreements cannot be resolved in the short term, and the bill will likely be unable to complete the full legislative process and take effect within 2026.