Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential

Odaily reported that "White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.

At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.

Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.

On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.

Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.