Wintermute: Bitcoin's Rally More Aligned with a Relief Rally, Not the Start of a New Bull Market

Odaily Odaily reports that Wintermute released a market analysis stating that weak US employment data and a dovish stance from Fed official Waller have driven a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum recently outperforming major US stock indices. Specifically, Bitcoin's rise is primarily supported by factors such as continued accumulation by whales, rising bullish sentiment in the options market, improved on-chain data, and better capital flows into spot ETFs; Ethereum's gains are more supported by institutional adoption and expectations for the development of tokenization infrastructure.

However, Wintermute believes this rally is more characteristic of a "relief rally" rather than the beginning of a new long-term bull market. While an improving macro environment and continued institutional positioning are boosting market sentiment, the cumulative net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs this year stands at approximately $2.73 billion. Until a sustained improvement trend in ETF capital flows is established, the current market movement should still be viewed as a sentiment repair rather than a structural reversal.