Analysis: Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Bolstered by Falling Inflation Expectations, Market Awaits July CPI Data

Odaily, July 5th - The cryptocurrency market continued its stabilization trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, recording its strongest weekly performance since March. This rally was primarily fueled by declining inflation expectations. The breakeven inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has dropped notably recently. The two-year indicator has fallen below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, while long-term inflation expectations have also weakened. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, returning to levels close to those seen before the geopolitical conflicts in February, prompting the market to reassess inflation pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory.

Some analysts suggest that if the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakens, it could further lower resistance for Bitcoin’s upward movement, as the two typically exhibit a negative correlation. However, other viewpoints caution that services inflation remains sticky, and falling oil prices do not necessarily imply a reversal of the overall inflation trend. Monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher for longer" stance.

The next key milestone for the market is the US June CPI data due on July 14th, which could serve as a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets. (CoinDesk)