Analysis: Bitcoin Could Drop to $40,000 Range, ETF Outflows and Demand Gap Amplify Downside Risk

Odaily reports that Bitfinex analysts indicate Bitcoin (BTC) is currently under sustained pressure below the $60,000 mark, having significantly retreated from its all-time high above $130,000. The sustained upward trend previously anticipated by the market is now facing clear reversal pressure. There has been a "structural exodus" in the spot market, ETF outflows continue unabated, and demand channels such as crypto treasuries have notably cooled, leaving the market lacking crucial buying support.

In a scenario forecast, Bitfinex believes that if the short-term macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, Bitcoin's "realized price" of approximately $53,400 will constitute a key technical support level. However, under the historical four-year cycle pattern and the assumption of diminishing marginal returns, the price could still experience a "final downside wick" dropping into the $40,000 range.

The analysis states that Bitcoin has currently corrected approximately 53.9% from its all-time high. The market decline is primarily driven by a combination of ETF sell-offs, short-term holders cutting losses, and capital outflows. The previously relied-upon institutional and treasury demand engine has significantly weakened. Bitcoin can only complete its bottoming process and resume its upward trend if spot demand recovers; otherwise, it faces further downside risk in the short term. (Crowdfundinsider)