Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter Bottom Zone, 200-Week MA Becomes Key Macro Divergence Level

Odaily Planet Daily News Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:

August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%

December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving average

March 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%

June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%

In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.

At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.

Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.