Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: PCE Data to Be Key Indicator for Fed Policy, Caution Urged on Gold Downside Risks

Odaily Planet Daily News: Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in an online livestream themed "Gold Trend Deconstruction Logic" that the market focus this week will be on the US May PCE price index and the final reading of Q1 GDP. Following the record highs in CPI and PPI data, coupled with steady non-farm payrolls, signals of rebounding inflation alongside the Fed's hawkish stance have led the market to gradually price in expectations of interest rate hikes. He emphasized that Warsh has clearly stated that curbing inflation is the primary task, and the interest rate dot plot indicates that rate hikes in 2026 are becoming an internal consensus, urging the market to prepare for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Regarding the gold trend, Lewis Huang stated that due to geopolitical conflicts pushing up energy prices, the year-on-year increase in the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) could climb to 3.4% or even higher. If the PCE data comes in above expectations, the US Dollar Index will gain strong momentum, while non-yielding assets like gold face weakening risks. He advises CFD traders to closely monitor inflation expectation gaps and flexibly seize opportunities for USD long positions or guard against gold downside risks.