Federal Reserve's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold Sees V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range Settles at $64,000-$65,000

Odaily reported that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.

This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.

In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.

Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."

Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.