Bitcoin Re-Enters "Sell in May" Debate, Market Watches for Recurrence of Historical Bear Market Patterns

Odaily reported that market analysts are clearly divided over whether Bitcoin is repeating the "sell in May" pattern. Some analysts argue that, during U.S. midterm election years, Bitcoin has historically experienced significant drawdowns in May twice: in 2018, dropping from approximately $10,000 to $7,000, and in 2022, falling nearly 30% from around $40,000 before further declining into the $20,000 range. Based on this pattern, some warn that 2026 could see a similar bear market structure.

Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated that this cycle "has a high degree of repetition," and if history repeats itself, BTC could even fall back to $33,000, despite current factors such as the advancing CLARITY Act, favorable policy developments, and improving trade expectations. João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, pointed out that when prices consistently stay below $78,000, the market enters a higher-probability "capitulation phase," with bearish momentum increasing.

However, opposing views suggest that historical declines were actually driven by more specific macroeconomic shocks, including liquidity tightening, industry black swan events, and regulatory impacts, rather than purely seasonal patterns. CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko emphasized that the current market structure has been significantly altered by ETF inflows, institutional allocations, and corporate holdings, making it unlikely to repeat the extreme 70%–80% drawdowns of the past.

BTC is currently trading around $76,900, with a key support level identified in the $76,000 range. A break below this level could open the door to deeper corrections. (Cointelegraph)