Analysis: Bitcoin oscillates between regulatory tailwinds and rising yields, with continued ETF outflows weighing on prices

According to Odaily, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $80,350, up a slight 0.8% in the short term, facing sustained pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This zone is considered a confluence of resistance from the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.

Although the US CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional capital continues to withdraw. Data shows that the 7-day average net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million per day, the largest outflow scale since mid-February. Analysts suggest this selling pressure is more driven by "profit-taking" than panic selling.

On the macro front, rising US Treasury yields are a core source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has climbed to approximately 4.52%, a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further pushing back market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets.

From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows represent portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural retreat. The options market indicates significant resistance for Bitcoin in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 stands as a key support level. If the price breaks below this zone without a cooling of leverage, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction. (Decrypt)