“Fed Whisperer”: April CPI Data Dents the Optimistic View of the “Tariff Inflation Theory”

Odaily Odaily reports that “Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos commented on the US CPI data, stating that the optimistic narrative about inflation has been that the recent price increases are driven by tariffs (which would be reflected in goods), and therefore, this increase would not be sustainable since tariffs will not continue to rise year after year. Looking solely at the April CPI data, this narrative does not hold up.

Housing costs rose by 0.6% (some rebound was expected to make up for the low data during the government shutdown). However, core services excluding housing rose by 0.45%, marking the third-highest monthly increase since January 2025. On a 12-month basis, the 3.3% year-over-year increase is the highest since February 2025. Core goods prices rose by 0.03% in the month (up 1.13% year-over-year). (Jin Shi)