Institution: Iran War Depleting Global Oil Buffer Stocks at Unprecedented Rate

According to Odaily, as the Iran war disrupts oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, global oil inventories are being consumed at a record pace, eroding the buffer stocks intended to withstand supply shocks. The rapid decline in inventories means the risk of more extreme price spikes and supply shortages is drawing closer. With the Strait of Hormuz approaching two months of near-closure, governments and industries have fewer and fewer options to cope with the impact of a supply loss exceeding 1 billion barrels. The sharp drawdown in inventories also implies that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply disruptions for a longer period. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil inventories averaged a drawdown of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day from March 1 to April 25, far exceeding the previous peak in quarterly inventory declines recorded in data compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounted for nearly 60% of the drawdown, with the remainder being refined products. The key point is that the oil system also requires a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, Global Head of Commodities Research at JPMorgan, indicated that this means the system will reach a point where the safety stocks that cannot be tapped any further are hit well before inventories are truly depleted. (Jinshi)