Trump Effect Ignites Prediction Market: Polymarket Trading Volume Surges Amid Controversy

Odaily Odaily reports that Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.

Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.

Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)