Analysis: Bitcoin's "Quantum Threat" Is Manageable, Potential $145 Billion Sell-Off May Not Be a Systemic Risk

Odaily reports that discussions regarding the potential threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's security have been reignited. Analyst James Check points out that while quantum computing could theoretically crack elliptic curve signatures, its market impact may be overestimated.

Data shows that approximately 1.7 million BTC (about $145 billion) are stored in early "Satoshi-era" addresses. If private keys were compromised, this could create potential selling pressure. However, from a market liquidity perspective, this scale is not insurmountable: in a bull market, long-term holders typically sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC daily. This means the aforementioned volume is equivalent to 2 to 3 months of routine profit-taking.

Additionally, the average monthly exchange inflow is about 850,000 BTC, and the notional trading volume in the derivatives market can cover this amount within just a few days. Historical data shows that during the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, far exceeding the scale of the potential "quantum risk," yet it did not trigger a systemic collapse.

Analysis suggests that even with a concentrated release, it is more likely to cause periodic volatility rather than a structural shock. Furthermore, entities capable of acquiring such assets are more inclined to adopt strategies like phased selling and hedging to mitigate market impact.

Overall, the core issue of the "quantum threat" may not be the selling pressure itself, but rather the governance-level response—such as whether to restrict the movement of assets from affected addresses through a protocol upgrade. (CoinDesk)