TD Cowen: Crypto Bill Progress Stalled, More Than Just Stablecoin Revenue Disputes

Odaily News Investment bank TD Cowen stated that disagreements surrounding the "CLARITY Act" extend far beyond the issue of stablecoin revenue, with multiple practical obstacles potentially slowing down the legislative process.

First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understaffed, currently with only one commissioner in office. Under these circumstances, Congress is unlikely to confidently assign more cryptocurrency regulatory responsibilities to the agency, and filling the personnel vacancies alone would require several months.

Second, the issue of prediction markets is heating up. Whether to include them under the bill's regulatory scope, along with potential concerns about insider trading and political conflicts of interest (including controversies related to Trump-affiliated projects), could cause some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill.

Simultaneously, the ongoing controversy surrounding the Trump family's crypto project, World Liberty Financial, is also increasing the bill's political sensitivity, making bipartisan consensus more difficult to achieve.

Geopolitics has also become a variable. Discussions regarding Iran's potential use of cryptocurrency payments are intensifying focus on anti-money laundering provisions and could even lead to the introduction of amendments unfavorable to the industry.

Furthermore, some lawmakers are attempting to incorporate the "Credit Card Competition Act" into the bill. If pursued, this could trigger new conflicts of interest, further impeding the overall legislative progress.