Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" Probability Rises to 68%, Up 9% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.

The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.