DefiLlama Founder: Three Potential Disposal Paths for the Kelp Security Incident, Worst-Case Scenario Could Lead to Over $300 Million in Bad Debt for Aave

Odaily News DefiLlama founder 0xngmi posted on X platform to calculate the potential disposal solutions for the Kelp security incident, proposing three possible paths: first, all users share the losses; second, abandon rsETH holders on L2; third, implement retrospective compensation based on pre-attack snapshots (relatively difficult to achieve).

Calculations show that if the option of sharing losses among all users is chosen for the approximately 666,000 rsETH currently deployed across Aave, estimated based on positions nearing 95% liquidation LTV, it would result in an overall impairment of about 18.5%. Of this, approximately 13.5% would translate into bad debt, corresponding to a scale of around $216 million. If the Umbrella mechanism covers about $55 million and the Aave treasury provides approximately $85 million in support, there would still be a shortfall of about $76 million, which would need to be covered through borrowing or selling AAVE tokens (currently $51 million).

If the option to abandon the L2 market is chosen, there are currently about $359 million in rsETH deposits. Under the same high-leverage assumption, this could generate approximately $341 million in bad debt, which would not be covered by the Umbrella mechanism and would need to be borne by Aave itself, or selective rescue operations could be conducted for some markets (such as Arbitrum, Mantle, Base).