Spark Strategy Lead: ETH Market Faces Liquidity Risk Due to Potential 10-15% Cut in rsETH-Backed Loans

Odaily News, Spark's strategy lead monetsupply.eth posted on X, stating that as the stablecoin market begins to face a liquidity shortage, the situation is entering a more dangerous phase, in my opinion. Approximately 16.5% of the ETH market is backed by rsETH. If losses on rsETH-backed loans are shared across the mainnet and external chains, they could face a 10% to 15% cut in emode, with the remaining 2% to 3% cut left for ETH suppliers to flatten the umbrella structure. ETH suppliers naturally tend to exit as soon as possible to avoid this risk, so utilization is locked at 100%, and the borrowing rate is insufficient to incentivize the repayment of unrelated LST loops (wstETH, weETH) to release liquidity. Since ETH cannot be withdrawn, users who borrowed stablecoins like USDT using ETH as collateral cannot close their positions even when stablecoin borrowing rates rise, which cuts off the typical incentive mechanisms that maintain market health. Currently, there are two unhealthy incentives causing market utilization to be locked at 100%:

1) ETH holders cannot close positions to maintain a healthy LTV, and liquidators cannot atomically withdraw or sell collateral. A drop in the ETHUSD price could lead to bad debt.

2) Users supplying USDT, in order to exit their holdings, tend to maximize borrowing of other stablecoins. This position is currently generating positive yield (temporarily), so the exit cost is low; if conditions worsen, they can recover at least 75% of the position's value.

The bottom line is that for these pooled/restaking lending markets to function properly, liquidity must be maintained at all costs. The recent weakening of the slope2 for Aave's maximum borrowing rate is having a negative impact and significantly increasing the risk of cascading market failure.