Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" Probability Drops to Just 37%, Down 9% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by May 31" is only 37%, down 9% in the last 24 hours.

The contract rules for this event are as follows: The market will resolve to "YES" if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) reports that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") for the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any day between the market creation date and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military announced it will begin implementing a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel entering or leaving the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed support for former President Trump's decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government maintains full coordination with Washington on this matter. In a video statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu stated at a cabinet meeting: "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump decided to impose a maritime blockade." "We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States."

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.