Analysis: Oil Prices Unlikely to Return to Pre-Israel-Iran Conflict Levels in the Short Term

Odaily News Multiple European financial institutions released reports on the 8th, predicting that international oil prices will struggle to fall back to pre-Israel-Iran conflict levels in the short term. The market needs to focus on the passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of infrastructure in the Middle East. ING stated that news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire has somewhat alleviated market concerns about long-term oil supply disruptions, causing international oil prices to drop below $100 per barrel. Future oil price trends will depend on whether negotiations can reach a lasting agreement and whether shipping levels in the Strait can return to normal. It is expected that the market will continue to experience volatility during the negotiation period.

UBS Group stated that it remains unclear when and to what extent shipping through the Strait will resume, as some tankers will need time to re-route. Once passage through the Strait is obstructed again, energy prices could rebound rapidly. Furthermore, even under optimistic scenarios, repairing energy infrastructure and restoring production will take weeks or even months. Therefore, energy prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels in the short term. (CCTV News)