Polymarket's "Trump Announces End of Military Action Against Iran by April 30" Probability Rises to 61%, Up 30% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for the Polymarket contract "Trump Announces End of Military Action Against Iran by April 30" surged significantly to 78% at one point. It is currently reported at 61%, representing a 24-hour increase of 30%. As of now, the total trading volume for the "When Will Trump Announce the End of Military Action Against Iran" event contract has exceeded $15.669 million.

The rules for this event contract are as follows: If President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and formally announces that the military action against Iran initiated on February 28, 2026, has ended by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". Eligible statements must explicitly state that the operation has concluded. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information do not qualify. Public written statements by Trump (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) will be considered valid statements. Videos posted on Trump's social media accounts will also be considered valid statements. The primary basis for market resolution will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives, but consensus from other credible reports will also be considered.

Previously, Trump announced that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran and stated that the U.S. would assist in handling the growing backlog of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump's post on Truth Social did not provide specific details on how the U.S. would help with the strait, nor did it discuss the possibility of Iran continuing to charge passage fees for certain vessels transiting the strait.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.