Analysis: Bitcoin's "Safe Haven Myth" Fails Amid US-Iran Conflict, ETF Funds Reshape Pricing Logic

Odaily News According to a post by 10x Research on the X platform, Bitcoin has not demonstrated its "inflation-resistant" or "safe-haven asset" properties against the backdrop of the current US-Iran conflict. Instead, it has fallen in sync with other risk assets, indicating a shift in its price-driving logic. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has introduced a new cohort of investors to the market, predominantly from Wall Street, who are more focused on macroeconomic variables than on-chain applications or network growth metrics. However, not all "macro" indicators are applicable to Bitcoin. Some retail investors still rely on narratives like the "four-year cycle" or its extension to a "five-year cycle," leading them to maintain long positions during the decline. The current market widely misinterprets Bitcoin, viewing it as a safe-haven asset, over-relying on outdated liquidity models, and overlooking the key macro factors that truly drive its cycles.