K33: Bitcoin's Sideways Consolidation Signals Bottom Formation, Receding Selling Pressure May Trigger Structural Reversal

Odaily News Cryptocurrency research firm K33 suggests that Bitcoin's recent sustained sideways consolidation may indicate a shift in market structure. As selling pressure diminishes, the market could be gradually approaching a cyclical bottom. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that Bitcoin has primarily been oscillating within the $60,000 to $75,000 range in recent weeks. This range, coupled with stabilizing ETF flows and long-term holder behavior, is often seen as characteristic of "market bottoming." The current low around $70,000 is attractive to medium- to long-term investors.

The report indicates that since late February, Bitcoin ETF flows have turned to modest net inflows, suggesting the concentrated distribution phase following the all-time high may be nearing its end. Profit-taking and passive selling triggered earlier by falling below cost bases are weakening, and market supply pressure is decreasing as prices decline. Regarding long-term holders, the supply held for over 6 months has begun to recover after a significant drop at the end of 2025, showing investors are more inclined to hold rather than sell at the current price range, which helps stabilize prices.

However, the macro environment remains uncertain. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and oil price volatility, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, are suppressing risk appetite and limiting the influx of incremental capital.

Derivatives data also reflect cautious market sentiment: Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest is near yearly lows, and funding rates remain persistently negative, indicating weak demand from long positions. Meanwhile, CME futures positions are largely flat, with institutional traders generally remaining on the sidelines. Despite this, K33 believes that the combination of receding selling pressure, stabilizing ETF flows, and price range consolidation suggests the market may be transitioning from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase, although short-term upside potential remains constrained by macro factors. (The Block)