Institution: The Core of Current Gold Price Movement Lies in the Re-constraint of Energy Price Increases on Interest Rate Expectations

Odaily News According to Xinda Futures, from the current drivers, the core of gold price movement lies in the re-constraint of energy price increases on interest rate expectations. As the Middle East conflict persists, crude oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude futures previously stabilizing above $100, significantly raising market concerns about inflation stickiness. Against this backdrop, the market's judgment on the path of inflation decline has become more cautious, thereby weakening pricing for rate cuts, driving a temporary strengthening of the US dollar and putting pressure on gold. Meanwhile, despite previously weak employment data, inflation expectations driven by energy are offsetting this positive factor, causing gold's financial attributes to lean bearish in the short term. On the policy front, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the interest rate path, particularly Powell's assessment of the impact of inflation and geopolitical conflicts, which will directly influence the market's judgment on the subsequent pace of easing. (Jin10)